Not a ‘Must Win’ but a ‘Must Not Lose’ 

Before the coronavirus shutdown it looked like a definitive fixture in Leeds United’s season set to be played out at a sold out electric Elland Road. With the return to action now in full flow and with the original fixtures in the same order, Saturday’s vist of Fulham is the most eagerly anticipated of the lot.  

Elland Road will have fans but only 15,000 in cardboard cut out form and although crowd noise will be blasted out from speakers positioned in the stands it wont be the same fever pitch atmosphere that the famous old stadium can create on nights/days like this. The type of atmosphere that would of left Osama Bin Laden quaking in his boots if was actually there in person. 

 Theres no hiding away from it. This weekend will have a telling impact on who goes up automatically this season. Brentford are the longshot to crash the automatic promotion parties of West Brom and Leeds United wheras Fulham are the closest. The 4 teams battle it out against each other and by 5pm on Saturday Leeds and the baggies could have one foot in the Premier League or the promotion race could be blown wide open.

Last Sunday’s anti-climatic defeat to Cardiff will increase the urgency from fans and players for a Leeds victory this weekend but whereas a win would be great for Leeds it’s Fulham who NEED the 3 points. This game, although the biggest of the season falls into the category of ‘must not lose’. Let me explain why..

The most points Fulham can achieve is 88 and Brentford 87. Leeds have twice the goal difference to Fulham effectively worth an extra point, however Brentford’s GD is very comfortable. This means 88 points will secure promotion for Leeds or alternatively a 17 point swing in our favour in the last seven games will see us go up. (e.g. Leeds win 4 and Fulham/Brentford lose one and draw one). 

 So, a win on Saturday and we will be at 10 clear of Fulham and at least 8 over Brentford. With home games agaisnt strugglers Luton, Stoke, Barnsley and Charlton to come and its hard to see how even Leeds could ‘Leeds this up’.  

Heres the permuations for the weekend’s actions.

 Brentford v West Brom 

 - a draw will probably be most ideal as we have aspirations for the league title to but the worst case scenario should Brentford win they will close the gap to 5 points on Friday night. 

Leeds beat Fulham 

- Leeds go 10 points clear over Fulham plus a healthy goal difference. Even if Fulham win all their remaining games after they still need to hope Leeds drop 12/21 ponits. We will also be 8 points above Brentford and be able to smell the Premier League. 

Leeds/Fulham Draw    
 
 Depending on the Brentford/West Brom result its as you were but with a game less for the two West London teams to catch us. It will wipe out 3 of the 17 points swing we need over Fulham so its a draw worth 3 points to Leeds. Leeds hold the cards in this proverbial six pointer. 

Fulham Win  

We have a seven point lead. The worst that can happen is that lead is cut to 4 points and we’re there to be shot at. It will be bitterly dissapointing but we’ve thrown away big leads before and to go through it again does’nt bear thinking about. 

Deja-Vu

The original fixture was due to be played on March 18 and you only had to look back just over a year to the day to when Leeds in second hosted third placed Sheffield United. Although the gap was much smaller, Leeds went all out for the win but were hit by a late sucker punch by Chris Basham to drop to 3rd a point behind the blades. Had we drawn that game we would of been 2 points clear of them in 2nd and that may of made all the difference in the closing stages of the season. 

Ironically, we’re in a situation similar to 2016/17 when in March we sat pretty in the Play-off positions 8 points above Fulham when we visited Craven Cottage Stuart Dallas, Luke Ayling, Gaetano Berardi and Kalvin Phillips will remember it well. We held onto a lead gifted to us early on through an own goal until the 96th minute when Tom Cairney levelled for the Cottagers. One more minute of holding on and it would of been an 11 point gap. It was cut to 8 and a good run to for Fulham coupled with a disastrous one for Leeds saw Fulham leapfrog them and miss out on the end of season lottery. 

 So a win and we will all be dancing in our living rooms with promotion at touching distance but if we don’t land that knockout punch, its better we keep Fulham at arms length rather than let them get us against the ropes. 

By Lawrence O’Sullivan